speed limit:yes or no

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Date: 12 Aug 2006 06:06:17
From: Mori
Subject: speed limit:yes or no

Once scientists believed that human beings aren't able to run 100
meters
in less than 10 seconds.Now the world record is 9.77 and thanks to
developing new training methods and increasing our knowledge about
nutrition for athletes and other factors, it's getting better and
better.Is this improvement limited to a certain record; if so, what's
that record limit and if not, is it possible for humans to run 100
meters in for example 1 second?

Date: 12 Aug 2006 14:17:02
From: Tim Downie
Subject: Re: speed limit:yes or no

Date: 13 Aug 2006 21:07:02
From: Phil M.
Subject: Re: speed limit:yes or no

timdownie2003@obvious.yahoo.co.uk wrote:

> Not without going up in flames. Seriously, what do you think? Do
> regard 1 second in the slightest way credible?

Sure. "Chariots of the Gods" part II.

--
Phil M.

Date: 12 Aug 2006 20:39:28
From: Donovan Rebbechi
Subject: Re: speed limit:yes or no

On 2006-08-12, Mori <mori79@gmail.com > wrote:
> Once scientists believed that human beings aren't able to run 100
> meters

Which scientists ? Could you name them, or cite the paper ? I'm always
sceptical of claims that are attributed to "scientists", without careful
citation, because on closer scrutiny they often turn out to be urban
legends.

See my other post -- Noakes has a really good discussion of the literature
that models trends in world records.

Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi
http://pegasus.rutgers.edu/~elflord/

Date: 12 Aug 2006 13:13:58
From: Charlie Pendejo
Subject: Re: speed limit:yes or no

smchant22 wrote:
> and 100M record is going down pretty slowly.......

And enough of those itty bitty increments have been DQ'd for drugs as
to taint the rest with suspicion.

Date: 12 Aug 2006 12:19:13
From:
Subject: Re: speed limit:yes or no

interesting article recently in the newspaper about running speed
records going down, but baseball pitchers aren't throwing any harder
than years ago (more pitchers throw close to 100 mph, but high end is
the same).

can't remember what the constraint was to throwing harder, but there
was one.....

running, i'd assume there is some physical constraint at some point
i.e. your legs would probably break running the 100M in one second
(original person's example)...

and 100M record is going down pretty slowly.......

Date: 12 Aug 2006 20:33:22
From: Donovan Rebbechi
Subject: Re: speed limit:yes or no

On 2006-08-12, smchant22@yahoo.com <smchant22@yahoo.com > wrote:
>
> interesting article recently in the newspaper about running speed
> records going down, but baseball pitchers aren't throwing any harder
> than years ago (more pitchers throw close to 100 mph, but high end is
> the same).
>
> can't remember what the constraint was to throwing harder, but there
> was one.....
>
> running, i'd assume there is some physical constraint at some point
> i.e. your legs would probably break running the 100M in one second
> (original person's example)...
>
> and 100M record is going down pretty slowly.......

Noakes has some interesting discussion on distance records, and predicting
trends in them. Some of the predictions are old enough that we already have
some idea which ones worked. It shouldn't be surprising that the methods
that worked best used sound physiology based models (not just curve fitting,
but also, well defined models and predictions about possible values for the
various parameters like VO2 max, etc)

Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi
http://pegasus.rutgers.edu/~elflord/

Date: 12 Aug 2006 23:22:37
From: Bucky
Subject: Re: speed limit:yes or no

Tim Downie wrote:
> Not without going up in flames. Seriously, what do you think? Do regard 1
> second in the slightest way credible?

He's not suggesting 1 second is the limit. He's making the point that
10s used to be an unthinkable barrier, but obviously not anymore. What
the current "unthinkable" barrier? 9.7? 9.6? 9.5? 9? 8? How do you
arrive at what number will never (in eternity) be broken?

Date: 13 Aug 2006 10:19:34
From: Donovan Rebbechi
Subject: Re: speed limit:yes or no

On 2006-08-13, Bucky <uw_badgers@email.com > wrote:
> Tim Downie wrote:
>> Not without going up in flames. Seriously, what do you think? Do regard 1
>> second in the slightest way credible?
>
> He's not suggesting 1 second is the limit. He's making the point that
> 10s used to be an unthinkable barrier, but obviously not anymore. What
> the current "unthinkable" barrier? 9.7? 9.6? 9.5? 9? 8?

I don't agree that it was ever "unthinkable". Take a look at the progression.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Record_progression_100_m_men

> How do you
> arrive at what number will never (in eternity) be broken?

You need a good model that is based on the underlying physiology of performance.
For example, in distance running, you could start with VO2 max, and have some
assumptions about the "all time VO2 max record". Models that are based on
naive curve fitting don't work very well.

Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi
http://pegasus.rutgers.edu/~elflord/

Date: 14 Aug 2006 07:40:53
From: JamesG
Subject: Re: speed limit:yes or no

Mori wrote:
> Once scientists believed that human beings aren't able to run 100
> meters
> in less than 10 seconds.Now the world record is 9.77 and thanks to
> developing new training methods and increasing our knowledge about
> nutrition for athletes and other factors, it's getting better and
> better.Is this improvement limited to a certain record; if so, what's
> that record limit and if not, is it possible for humans to run 100
> meters in for example 1 second?

I took the 100m record progression at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Record_progression_100_m_men
and put the data in a spreadsheet. I graphed this data and inserted a
trendline. The closest fit was a logarithmic equation. This was not
surprising given the type of data we are talking about. The R-squared
value for the equation was 0.911.
I Forecasted forward with this trendline and it predicts that around
100 years from now the 100m record time will be around 9.5 seconds.
It predicts that around the year 2230 the 100m record time will be
around 9.3 seconds. Around the year 4000 it predicts the 100m records
time will be a little less than 8.5 seconds; Year 7375 = 8.05 seconds.
So hopefully this gives an idea to your question about reasonable
limits based on the data that we have collected so far. As with any
fitted equation it is only as good as the data you put in and there
were only about 100yrs of data available. Predicting much past the
next 100 years or so is mainly just for fun given the uncertainties
involved.
I am an Engineer and I guess based on this post have shown myself to
be a nerd also. If anyone wants me to email them a copy of the
spreadsheet just let me know.

Have a good day,
James