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Date: 04 Sep 2006 23:42:54
From: Bucky
Subject: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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If I can run 5K at 7:30 mile pace, about what range would you predict
my half marathon pace to be? Based on either your own experience or
others that run at that pace.
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Date: 05 Sep 2006 10:23:06
From: Bucky
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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Donovan Rebbechi wrote:
> If you don't have the training under your belt and you haven't run the distance
> before, your best bet is to run it conservatively at about 8:30 or so, and just
> aim for a strong finish (e.g. try to run a sub 8:00 pace in the last 5k/3.1
> miles). That way you will still run a 1:49.
Thanks for your input. You were right at guessing that I have not run
or trained for that distance before. I have some friends that want to
do a half marathon, and I was wondering what kind of time I could
reasonably expect with minimal training. I'm not trying to race/go all
out, just doing it for a fun experience. Seems like 8:30 to 9:00 mile
pace is a reasonably conservative range, given that I can do 5K at 7:30
pace.
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Date: 05 Sep 2006 15:55:46
From: Donovan Rebbechi
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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On 2006-09-05, Bucky <uw_badgers@email.com > wrote:
> If I can run 5K at 7:30 mile pace, about what range would you predict
> my half marathon pace to be? Based on either your own experience or
> others that run at that pace.
In theory, about 8:10. But that assumes that you're reasonably well prepared
for the distance (for example, your weekly long run should be at least 13
miles). That would give you a 1:47 or so.
If you don't have the training under your belt and you haven't run the distance
before, your best bet is to run it conservatively at about 8:30 or so, and just
aim for a strong finish (e.g. try to run a sub 8:00 pace in the last 5k/3.1
miles). That way you will still run a 1:49.
Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi
http://pegasus.rutgers.edu/~elflord/
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Date: 05 Sep 2006 07:00:12
From: Al Bundy
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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Bucky wrote:
> If I can run 5K at 7:30 mile pace, about what range would you predict
> my half marathon pace to be? Based on either your own experience or
> others that run at that pace.
Unless you say more about your training, anything is just a pure guess.
If you have never run a marathon before, maybe you won't even finish.
You don't provide 10K or half marathon times, probably because you have
not achieved those distances either. So you are merely speculating and
dreaming at this point.
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Date: 05 Sep 2006 15:46:39
From: Donovan Rebbechi
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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On 2006-09-05, Al Bundy <MSfortune@mcpmail.com > wrote:
>
> Bucky wrote:
>> If I can run 5K at 7:30 mile pace, about what range would you predict
>> my half marathon pace to be? Based on either your own experience or
>> others that run at that pace.
>
> Unless you say more about your training, anything is just a pure guess.
> If you have never run a marathon before, maybe you won't even finish.
He's trying to predict pace for the half, not the full.
Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi
http://pegasus.rutgers.edu/~elflord/
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Date: 05 Sep 2006 13:47:42
From: Robert Grumbine
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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In article <1157438574.720113.35390@i42g2000cwa.googlegroups.com >,
Bucky <uw_badgers@email.com > wrote:
>If I can run 5K at 7:30 mile pace, about what range would you predict
>my half marathon pace to be? Based on either your own experience or
>others that run at that pace.
7:30 pace or slower. That prediction is fairly reliable (unless,
of course, your 5k was early in your beginner-hood and you're better
trained now ...)
Tour the net some for predictors. After they've finished giving you
their more than 1 minute per mile spread, realize that there's something
lacking in quality of the verification that's been done on the predictors.
About the most optimistic prediction would be for 8:05/mile at half
marathon off a 7:30/mile 5k. That assumes, however, that you have
done all the distance and speed training for the half, and have mastered
(not merely been introduced, but mastered) your fluid and electrolyte
requirements to be running for the about 1:45. 9:00/mile is about the
most pessimistic -- for someone who has put in the base mileage to run
the distance, and has at least finished eliminating fluid and electrolyte
practices which are bad.
Sky's the limit if you don't have the base mileage, or haven't done
any fluid and electrolyte experiments.
--
Robert Grumbine http://www.radix.net/~bobg/ Science faqs and amateur activities notes and links.
Sagredo (Galileo Galilei) "You present these recondite matters with too much
evidence and ease; this great facility makes them less appreciated than they
would be had they been presented in a more abstruse manner." Two New Sciences
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Date: 05 Sep 2006 16:09:16
From: Donovan Rebbechi
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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On 2006-09-05, Robert Grumbine <bobg@radix.net > wrote:
> 7:30 pace or slower. That prediction is fairly reliable (unless,
> of course, your 5k was early in your beginner-hood and you're better
> trained now ...)
>
> Tour the net some for predictors. After they've finished giving you
> their more than 1 minute per mile spread, realize that there's something
> lacking in quality of the verification that's been done on the predictors.
The good predictors will consistently give about an 8:10 or so. These include
Wava, Daniels, McMillan, and the Gardner-Purdy tables. These are the widely
used and recommended ones.
> About the most optimistic prediction would be for 8:05/mile at half
> marathon off a 7:30/mile 5k. That assumes, however, that you have
> done all the distance and speed training for the half, and have mastered
> (not merely been introduced, but mastered) your fluid and electrolyte
> requirements to be running for the about 1:45. 9:00/mile is about the
> most pessimistic -- for someone who has put in the base mileage to run
> the distance, and has at least finished eliminating fluid and electrolyte
> practices which are bad.
If he really did have the base mileage, a 9:00/mile half marathon would be his
weekly long run.
Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi
http://pegasus.rutgers.edu/~elflord/
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Date: 05 Sep 2006 17:41:02
From: Robert Grumbine
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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In article <slrnefr89c.hqp.abuse@panix2.panix.com >,
Donovan Rebbechi <abuse@aol.com > wrote:
>On 2006-09-05, Robert Grumbine <bobg@radix.net> wrote:
>> About the most optimistic prediction would be for 8:05/mile at half
>> marathon off a 7:30/mile 5k. That assumes, however, that you have
>> done all the distance and speed training for the half, and have mastered
>> (not merely been introduced, but mastered) your fluid and electrolyte
>> requirements to be running for the about 1:45. 9:00/mile is about the
>> most pessimistic -- for someone who has put in the base mileage to run
>> the distance, and has at least finished eliminating fluid and electrolyte
>> practices which are bad.
>
>If he really did have the base mileage, a 9:00/mile half marathon would be his
>weekly long run.
1:30/mile slower than 5k pace for your long run pace? Who is the
recommender of that fast a pace for long runs? 1:30-2:00/mile slower
-- than 10k pace -- is a common figure (c.f. Glover and Schuder).
But 10k pace for a 7:30 5k'er is more like 7:55, thence 9:25-9:55/mile
for long run pace.
--
Robert Grumbine http://www.radix.net/~bobg/ Science faqs and amateur activities notes and links.
Sagredo (Galileo Galilei) "You present these recondite matters with too much
evidence and ease; this great facility makes them less appreciated than they
would be had they been presented in a more abstruse manner." Two New Sciences
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Date: 05 Sep 2006 02:59:03
From:
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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Bucky wrote:
> If I can run 5K at 7:30 mile pace, about what range would you predict
> my half marathon pace to be? Based on either your own experience or
> others that run at that pace.
You could try here:
http://www.onrunning.com/runners_services/predictor.asp
I've run 5k in 18m flat, which predicts 1h 22m 47s but I've actually
run a half-marathon in 1h 21m 42s. Does that help?
Edward
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Date: 05 Sep 2006 13:27:19
From: Al Bundy
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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Donovan Rebbechi wrote:
> On 2006-09-05, Al Bundy <MSfortune@mcpmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > Bucky wrote:
> >> If I can run 5K at 7:30 mile pace, about what range would you predict
> >> my half marathon pace to be? Based on either your own experience or
> >> others that run at that pace.
> >
> > Unless you say more about your training, anything is just a pure guess.
> > If you have never run a marathon before, maybe you won't even finish.
>
> He's trying to predict pace for the half, not the full.
>
> Cheers,
> --
> Donovan Rebbechi
I stand corrected by 50%. It's still a dream racing 13 based on 3.1
training.
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Date: 06 Sep 2006 01:27:01
From: Dan Stumpus
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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"Al Bundy" <MSfortune@mcpmail.com > wrote
> I stand corrected by 50%. It's still a dream racing 13 based on 3.1
> training.
Not if your training includes long runs and adequate (say 45+) miles/week.
I'd bet that someone with a long run of 10-13/miles once/week and a good
base would have little problem coming close to his extrapolated time based
on those reliable performance tables (eg, gardner/purdy).
If you run only 25 miles/week and your longest run is 7 miles, it's a whole
'nother ballgame...
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Date: 06 Sep 2006 03:19:57
From: Dan Stumpus
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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"Dan Stumpus" <dstumpus_NOSP@mindspring.com > wrote
>> I stand corrected by 50%. It's still a dream racing 13 based on 3.1
>> training.
Oh, as a PS, 3.1 training for the WR holder (Bikele) includes a weekly 31
mile run at 5:40 pace...see below:
http://wls3.com/running/logs-bekele.php
(ok, this is way above and beyond the weekend warrior's 5k training, but to
run your best 5k, you basically need to be in excellent endurance shape)
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Date: 06 Sep 2006 15:53:52
From: steve common
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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"Al Bundy" <MSfortune@mcpmail.com > wrote:
>I stand corrected by 50%. It's still a dream racing 13 based on 3.1
>training.
On 3.1 race performance - no info about training.
FWIW My first road race was 21095m (1:43) done on mostly sub-40' treadmill
runs, 3 times / week.
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Date: 06 Sep 2006 15:20:45
From: Donovan Rebbechi
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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On 2006-09-06, steve common <stevenZ.common@wanadoo.fr > wrote:
> "Al Bundy" <MSfortune@mcpmail.com> wrote:
>
>>I stand corrected by 50%. It's still a dream racing 13 based on 3.1
>>training.
>
> On 3.1 race performance - no info about training.
>
> FWIW My first road race was 21095m (1:43) done on mostly sub-40' treadmill
> runs, 3 times / week.
I ran 69 minutes for a 10 miler off a mid 20s 5k. I was doing about ~30mpw the month
before the race, and less than 25mpw the month before that. I had several 8 mile
runs, but hardly anything longer.
For the elite men, the half is basically an LT test, and I dare say that for the
competitive locals (sub 90), it's still basically a (slightly prolonged) LT test,
which means that you can predict it very reliably from 5k times (whereas you can't
do the same for a marathon). You just don't get "long run physiology" effects in the
90 minute window. 90 minutes is just too short to bonk or dehydrate, at least under
favourable racing conditions. I've known people on very weak training programs
to run their predicted half marathon times, but the same people tend to fall
apart pretty badly in the marathon. To put it another way, the half is more like a 5k
than it is like a marathon.
Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi
http://pegasus.rutgers.edu/~elflord/
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Date: 06 Sep 2006 15:01:22
From: Dan Stumpus
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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"steve common" <stevenZ.common@wanadoo.fr > wrote
> "Al Bundy" <MSfortune@mcpmail.com> wrote:
>>I stand corrected by 50%. It's still a dream racing 13 based on 3.1
>>training.
> FWIW My first road race was 21095m (1:43) done on mostly sub-40' treadmill
> runs, 3 times / week.
Very similar to my experience. My first race was a marathon (1600' of
climb, 90 degrees F) in 3:21, done on mostly hour runs @ 8:15 pace...
(averaged 7:00 miles thru 20, then crashed)
However, I think we'd both have to admit to above average ability...
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Date: 06 Sep 2006 08:26:46
From: Charlie Pendejo
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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Donovan wrote:
> for the competitive locals (sub 90)
Can we make that sub 91?
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Date: 06 Sep 2006 19:06:08
From: Donovan Rebbechi
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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On 2006-09-06, Charlie Pendejo <Charlie.Pendejo@gmail.com > wrote:
> Donovan wrote:
>> for the competitive locals (sub 90)
>
> Can we make that sub 91?
Nah. Good luck in Grete's (-;
Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi
http://pegasus.rutgers.edu/~elflord/
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Date: 07 Sep 2006 11:57:17
From:
Subject: Re: predict half marathon time from 5K time
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> >>I stand corrected by 50%. It's still a dream racing 13 based on 3.1
> >>training.
> >
> > On 3.1 race performance - no info about training.
> >
> > FWIW My first road race was 21095m (1:43) done on mostly sub-40' treadmill
> > runs, 3 times / week.
>
> I ran 69 minutes for a 10 miler off a mid 20s 5k. I was doing about ~30mpw the month
> before the race, and less than 25mpw the month before that. I had several 8 mile
> runs, but hardly anything longer.
I ran a 1:48 half off minimal 5K training that usually got me 5Ks
between 20:30 and 21:30. My longest run previously was six miles but I
rarely ran longer than 4.5 miles. I ran the half at 8:00-pace for as
long as I could, which turned out to be about ten miles, then ran the
last 3.1 miles at 9:00-pace.
> For the elite men, the half is basically an LT test, and I dare say that for the
> competitive locals (sub 90), it's still basically a (slightly prolonged) LT test,
> which means that you can predict it very reliably from 5k times (whereas you can't
> do the same for a marathon). You just don't get "long run physiology" effects in the
> 90 minute window. 90 minutes is just too short to bonk or dehydrate, at least under
> favourable racing conditions. I've known people on very weak training programs
> to run their predicted half marathon times, but the same people tend to fall
> apart pretty badly in the marathon. To put it another way, the half is more like a 5k
> than it is like a marathon.
Which probably explains why it took me 4:55 to run a marathon a
month later.
Mike
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